Maggi noodles maker Nestle India will release its fiscal fourth quarter earnings report on April 24 (Thursday) and according to brokerages, the FMCG major is likely to post revenue growth in the range of 3-5 per cent while profit is expected to decline by nearly 6 per cent. According to a Moneycontrol poll of 11 brokerages, Nestle India’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise by 4.4 per cent to Rs 5,500 crore compared to Rs 5,268 crore reported in the same quarter last year. Net profit for the March quarter is likely to drop nearly 6 per cent to Rs 870 crore as against Rs 924 reported in the corresponding quarter of previous financial year, on weak operational performance.
An analysis report by Nuvama said, “In the mid-tier category, Adani Wilmar, Nestle, BritanniaGodrej Consumer, Tata Consumer, ITCCCL Products, Bikaji Foods, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unileverand Dabur while Colgate, Bajaj Consumer, and Indigo Paints are likely to experience muted results.” It further maintained that Nestle is expected to implement a gradual price hike of around 2 per cent in Q4 mainly led by coffee but certain price hikes seen across portfolios. The brokerage firm estimated revenue growth of 5 per cent YoY for Q4FY25. “Given cocoa, coffee and palm oil cost remains inflationary, gross/EBITDA margin is likely to decline 20bp/59bp YoY to 57 per cent/ 24.8 per cent,” the brokerage firm stated.
Nestle India Q4 results date
The FMCG major has announced that it will release its financial results on April 24. In a regulatory filing on April 17, Nestle India said, “…the audited financial results (standalone and consolidated) of the company for the financial year ended 31st March 2025 shall be considered by the Board of Directors at its meeting scheduled on Thursday, 24th April 2025.” The company further added that the board will also consider recommendation of final dividend for the financial year 2024-25, if any, for the approval of the members at the ensuing Annual General Meeting.
What are brokerage firms predicting?
Nestle, per analysts, are expected to stage a mixed financial performance for the March quarter of FY25.
Kotak Institutional Equities said that Nestle is expected to post 5.4 per cent YoY revenue growth, led by 5.3 per cent/ 3.9 per cent YoY growth in domestic/exports markets. The brokerage firm maintained that growth continues to be impacted by muted urban demand and elevated commodity prices, partly buoyed by some benefit in Maggi portfolio due to Maha Kumbh 2025. Price-mix growth, it added, is led by price hikes in chocolates, coffee, and Maggi. “Gross margin could contract 185 bps YoY to 55 per cent, impacted by sharp inflation (in the range of 50-70 per cent YoY) in coffee, cocoa, and edible oils. We expect EBITDA margin to also decline by 190 bps YoY to 23.5 per cent. Net-net, we expect EBITDA to decline ~2.4 per cent YoY but PAT decline could be higher due to lower other income (lower cash balance after investment of Rs 7 billion in JV with Dr Reddy’s),” it said.
While penciling in a gradual price hike by Nestle, Nuvama said, “Domestic sales are likely to grow 5-6 per cent YoY, while domestic volumes will grow 3 per cent YoY. Overall demand trends have improved sequentially given marginal recovery in urban areas – however slowdown still persists. Exports revenue likely to grow 7 per cent YoY. As the urban slowdown tapers down (likely by Q2FY26) we estimate demand trends to further improve from here on.”
Axis Securities said that Nestle’s revenue is expected to grow by 5 per cent, led by 3 per cent volume growth and price hikes. EBITDA margin will likely decline 182bps YoY to 25.7 per cent on account of subdued GM performance. PAT, meanwhile, is expected to decline on account of lower other income
Morgan Stanley projected a 4 per cent domestic revenue growth while EBITDA margins are expected to weaken YoY, to improve sequentially. It further estimated organic topline growth of 9 per cent, India tea growth 12 per cent and food organic growth of 11 per cent.
Estimates from brokerage firms
Kotak Institutional Equities
Revenue
Rs 5553.40 crore; Up 5.4% YoY
Ebitda
Rs 1306.60 crore; Down 2.4% YoY
Net income
Rs 877.50 crore; Down 5.0% YoY
Nuvama
Revenue
Rs 5532.20 crore; Up 5% YoY
Ebitda
Rs 1372.00 crore; Up 3% YoY
Core bed
Rs 906.70 crore; Down 2% YoY
Axis Securities
Revenue
Rs 5502 crore; Up 4.7% YoY
Ebitda
Rs 1312 crore; Down 2.7% YoY
PAT
Rs 847 crore; Down 9.3% YoY
Morgan Stanley
Revenue
Rs 5412.50 crore; Up 3% YoY
Ebitda
Rs 1239.10 crore; Down 6% YoY
PAT
Rs 837.80 crore; Down 9% YoY
What are key monitorables?
In terms of key monitorables, Axis Securities said that investors and market participants will watch out for management’s commentaries on demand outlook on rural vs urban, competitive intensity. They will also look out for trends on raw material prices and its effect on EBITDA margins, as well as the growing competitive pressure across segments.
Nestle India’s Q3 performance
In the fiscal third quarter, Nestle India had reported a profit of Rs 688.01 crore, posting a growth of 4.94 per cent in comparison to Rs 655.61 crore during the corresponding quarter of FY24. It had posted revenue from operations at Rs 4779.73 crore, up 3.90 per cent YoY. Nestlé India had said that the company delivered growth despite the challenging external environment. The company EBITDA stood at Rs 1103 crore.