Just when investors began to hope for progress on the global trade front, President Trump reignited tensions with new threats of unilateral tariffs. That announcement sent a shiver through financial markets. From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq 100 future has struggled at the 22,000 mark, which is telling, notes Fawad Razaqzadatechnical analyst at Trading Candles.
Trump’s proposed measures, aimed at over 20 trading partners, are expected to be detailed in letters sent out before a looming July 9 deadline. This development put the brakes on what had been a strong rally from the April lows. Market participants are now asking tough questions: Without tangible progress on trade and given elevated stock valuations, is it worth holding risk assets?
As for the Nasdaq 100, despite a couple of breakout attempts, the index couldn’t hold above key resistance. A rising wedge formation appears to be breaking down, and the RSI is flashing negative divergence near overbought levels — both signs that the bullish momentum may be running out of steam.
If current weakness persists, watch the 21,500–21,560 zone. This has been a critical battleground between bulls and bears and could offer some support.
A decisive break below this level, however, would open the door for deeper losses — particularly if the May 23 low at 20,727 is breached. That would mark the first lower low since the April rally and potentially signal a trend reversal.
On the upside, the 21,790 level and the psychological 22,000 mark remain the key hurdles. A daily close above 22,000, despite all the macro uncertainty, would be a bullish sign and could pave the way for fresh all-time highs.
So, the market’s fate hangs in the balance. While the broader uptrend is still intact for now, caution is warranted. Traders should keep an eye on key levels — and be ready for swift moves in either direction.