Area’s Chance Of Development Ticks Up
Tropical or subtropical development is possible this weekend or early next week on either side of Florida and up the Carolina coast. Regardless of whether that happens, rainy weather will impact Florida and possibly the coastal Carolinas through the holiday weekend.
Tropical Development Potential
(The possible area of tropical or subtropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook is shown by the polygon, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days.)
The Setup: A “cold” front will work its way into the Southeast and Florida during the next few days, where it will eventually stall. Sometimes when dying fronts like this stall over the waters of the Gulf and off the Southeast coast, one or more areas of low pressure can develop and make an attempt at forming into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm.
(MORE: 5 Ways Tropical Storms Can Form)
Don’t get too excited about the words “cold front” if you’re south of Interstate 10. No cold air is coming in during July, but for some, there may be some drier air temporarily from the Florida Panhandle northward.
To the South, more rain is in the forecast, regardless of tropical development.
Timing And Development Chances: The first step in any development chance is for low pressure to spin up near the stalling front over water and become better defined this weekend into early next week.
Atmospheric conditions are only marginally conducive, so only slow development of a subtropical or tropical depression is possible from off the Southeast Coast to the eastern Gulf, the National Hurricane Center says. We don’t expect any system to become strong if development did occur.
Impacts Are Expected, Regardless: Showers and storms will continue to blanket Florida both ahead of the stalling front and with its arrival over the next several days. These thunderstorms will come in several rounds or bands and could be more persistent than the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Multi-inch rainfall totals are possible in spots through the weekend, especially in central and southern Florida.
The beach forecast this holiday weekend will be touch and go, so be sure to have a plan B and a way to shelter from lightning. Rip currents will also be possible through the holiday weekend.
If a low pressure system develops, some onshore winds and rainfall could also redevelop late this weekend along the Southeast Coast.
Rainfall Forecast
(This image shows the amount of rainfall forecast through Saturday.)
With many people heading to the beach for the 4th of July weekend, check back often for forecast updates as we continue to track this area of possible development.
Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.